7.1 STRENGTHENING THE 19-KILOMETER TUNNEL

Abstract

In accordance with the Resolution of the Government of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. PP-1985, the construction of the Angren - Pap railway began in 2013. The project was developed taking into account the most complex engineering and topographical conditions, and in 2016 the railway line was put into operation. In the project documentation, there is a large project for the construction of a 19-kilometer tunnel. The project provides not only for the railway connection of the Fergana Valley with the rest of the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan, but also for the shortest possible paths for the economic interaction of the territories of Western China with South Asia. However, plans to connect Western China with the countries of South Asia were postponed indefinitely due to a number of reasons.

At this moment, the solution to the issue of connecting Western China with South Asia is once again becoming relevant due to the revision of the reasons why the connection of these two important territories was suspended. The implementation of plans to connect Western China with the countries of South Asia along the Angren - Pap line may lead to a significant increase in the volume of transportation. However, the situation with the volumes of transportation in the first 5 - 15 years under the condition of the operation of the Angren - Pap railway line and the 19-kilometer tunnel located within it is very uncertain.

It is known that the amount of initial investments for the construction of railways, the timing of subsequent reconstruction measures to strengthen the line's capacity, as well as operating costs, largely depend on the size and growth dynamics of transportation volumes.

Strengthening the tunnel's capacity (construction of a second tunnel) to switch transit cargo flows between China and Central and South Asia requires significant additional investments and the involvement of foreign specialists. In addition, the Angren-Pap railway is located in mountainous conditions, which creates great difficulties in constructing a 19-kilometer tunnel in such conditions and entails large operating costs. It is precisely in such complex conditions that an analysis of uncertainties and risks is required when justifying the strengthening of the Angren-Pap railway line's capacity to switch transit cargo flows between China and Central and South Asia, and in particular, when assessing the strengthening of the 19-kilometer tunnel. Correctly assessing the risks will allow for saving construction and operating costs and increasing competitiveness with alternative modes of transport.